Thirty Dow points here, fifty Dow points there and pretty soon you have real progress.

All four major indices made new highs for the year yesterday, but without fanfare. Based on comments we are hearing from brokers, you could call this the Reluctant Rally. Despite skepticism about the economic underpinnings, investors don’t want to miss out on a rising market, so selling pressure remains mild. When the music stops, we expect a sharp down day or two, but the first selling spree will probably be bought after a few days of purging.

The Dow is now 130 points from the 10,000 level and 430 points from where we think it will face considerable technical resistance. The market is likely to accelerate from here, however, because financials are back in gear (see chart below).

The banking sector broke out above key resistance on 9/16 and has been consolidating that breakout for a few days. Yesterday, the bank buyers came back, boosting the sector to a new yearly closing high. We think the financials will move higher from here, lifting the broader market to the Dow 10,300 level rather quickly.

Yesterday, commodities also advanced due to continued weakness in the dollar. Crude oil rallied to $71.55, which helped our drillers and our coal play. We think the dollar is in a secular decline, which will be good for commodity prices. By the way, a falling dollar is also good for equities.

The FOMC will announce its decision on interest rates and give some comments on the state of the recovery at 2:15 pm ET. The news from the Fed is expected to be benign. Last week, Chairman Bernanke opined that the recession is over. This is a Fed that does not want to surprise the Street with negative news.