The Dow hit 10,000 this week, then stumbled, then regained its footing, then stumbled again. Despite their overbought conditions and high valuation metrics, the major U.S. indices are being supported by the Fed policy of super-easy money and the consequent carry trade in the U.S. dollar. The carry trade is causing continued downward pressure on the dollar and a commensurate rise in commodities and in other assets such as the stock market. Enjoy the ride for now and consider selling overvalued companies at what we consider to be more than fair prices. It is easy money, after all.  

The Best 4 Quants Model Portfolio finished last week at -0.3% vs. the S&P's +1.5%. So far this week the Best 4 Quants Model Portfolio has a return of -0.8% vs. the S&P's +0.5%. Since Inception 3/14/2003 the model has a return of +268.3% vs. the S&P 500's +31.3%. The Best 4 Quants Model has no picks this week.

For those who do not follow the Best 4 Quants model portfolio, we offer our TSR Timing Model as general guidance on the relative safety of the current market. The timing model remains at +200% invested.