These defiant actions probably did not come as a complete surprise to Israel. In the last month, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu  has met in closed-door sessions with U.S. President Obama , as well as French President Sarkozy  and German Foreign Minister Westerwelle , attempting to rally support for meaningful trade sanctions and to make a case for a pre-emptive strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. We suspect that the Israeli intelligence organization had already obtained information on the Iranian policy shift. Mr. Netanyahu will be in Berlin  this week, for further discussions.

At this time, however, the key player in the drama is Russia, not Israel. Russia has been using Iran as a bargaining chip in negotiations with the U.S. on other matters. If these two major powers were to come to a strategic agreement on those side issues, Iran would be left without a major ally. Interestingly, Russia has some financial incentive to do just that. Here’s why.

Iran’s primary deterrent against an air strike is its ability to disrupt oil tanker flow through the Strait of Hormuz  . About 90% of Gulf oil moves through the narrow Strait, which lies between Iran and the peninsula formed by the UAE  and Oman . Were Iran to take action to block the oil flow, the ensuing spike in oil prices would create a temporary windfall for producing countries, including Russia. Russia, if you remember, produces as much oil as Saudi Arabia . Because Russia has financial difficulties , a deal with the U.S. may be tempting. Russia would lose a geopolitical pawn, but would be paid handsomely for the loss.