On Monday, the Dow closed up 76 points, only its fourth up day in the last ten trading days. The intraday action was volatile, however, with a range greater than 200 points peak to trough.

The volatility catalyst was a report from the Institute for Supply Management that indicated manufacturing activity grew in October at the fastest pace since April 2006. The 55.7 reading, if annualized, would imply GDP growth of 4.5%. Manufacturing activity improved worldwide, as well, suggesting that this is a synchronized global upturn. Things did not get better in Russia, however, and we think that country remains a short sale candidate. In other words, we are bullish on BIC not BRIC.